In-Short
- IDC forecasts a 5.8% growth in global smartphone shipments for 2024, reaching 1.23 billion units.
- Android devices are expected to grow nine times faster than iOS, driven by emerging markets.
- Generative AI (GenAI) smartphones are predicted to see a 344% growth, capturing 18% of the market by 2024.
- Canalys reports strong growth in the smartphone market, with Samsung and Apple leading in shipments.
Summary
According to IDC, the global smartphone market is set to experience a significant upturn in 2024, with shipments projected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year, totaling 1.23 billion units. This optimistic forecast is largely attributed to the rising demand for affordable Android smartphones in emerging markets and the burgeoning interest in high-end smartphones equipped with generative AI capabilities.
In a detailed analysis, IDC highlights that Android’s growth rate is expected to outpace that of iOS by a factor of nine, with a 7.1% increase compared to a modest 0.8% for iOS. This trend is partly due to Apple facing stiffer competition in China and a high base year comparison for iPhone sales. However, the introduction of GenAI features in the iPhone 16 and potential AI partnerships in China could provide a boost for iOS, with a 4% growth anticipated in 2025.
The emergence of GenAI smartphones is set to revolutionize the market, with IDC forecasting a staggering 344% growth in this segment. These devices are expected to account for 18% of the total market share by the end of 2024, with most flagship models incorporating on-device GenAI features. The premium pricing of GenAI-capable smartphones is also expected to contribute to the trend of premiumization within the industry.
Reinforcing IDC’s findings, Canalys reports a robust performance in the global smartphone market, with three consecutive quarters of growth. Samsung maintains its lead with 53.5 million units shipped, while Apple follows closely, thanks to strong sales in North America and emerging markets in the APAC region. Xiaomi remains a strong contender, securing a 15% market share with its competitive product lineup.
Despite the positive outlook, Canalys does not expect the smartphone market to achieve double-digit growth in 2024. Nevertheless, the market is predicted to grow in the mid-single digits, supported by improved inventory levels, relaxed import restrictions, and a more favorable economic climate.
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